European Monetary Forum

University of Glasgow Adam Smith Business School & European Monetary Forum.

8–9th March 2013

Registration for this conference is now closed.

Funded by

University of Glasgow Adam Smith Business School
Glasgow University Logo

Scottish Institute for Research in Economics Scottish Institute for Research in Economics

Cardiff Business School Logo

Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics

March 8



  Chair: Charles Nolan


Michael Arghyrou, "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign bond yield spreads and their determinants"


Mike Wickens, “Is the UK Triple-A?”


Arnab Bhattarcharjee, "Monetary Policy under Model Uncertainty:
A Bayesian Analysis of FOMC Forecasts




Chair: Patrick Minford


Stephen Wright, "The Predictive Space or Why Economists are so Bad at Predicting the Macroeconomy"


Gulkin Ozkan, "Austerity versus stimulus: The redistributive impact of fiscal policy in a DSGE framework"


Policy Panel: Macroprudential Policy — new dawn or old regulative disaster? Chair: Kent Matthews; Panel: Jagjit Chadha, Dale Henderson






March 9

  Chair: Parantap Basu

8.45 am

Harris Dellas, "Credibility for sale"


Dale Henderson, "Sector-Specific Productivity Shocks and Aggregate Outcomes: What You Put In Affects What You Get Out"




Chair: Kent Matthews


Tony Yates, "Risk news shocks and the business cycle"


Peter Smith, "Carry, Momentum and Trend Following Returns in the Foreign Exchange Market", prior paper for reference: "The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following in Global Asset Allocation"




End of Proceedings

Rules of Engagement:

The time allocated for each session includes author's presentation and discussion with participants (there will be no formal discussants) so it is really up to the author to maximise. For guidance authors might think in terms of taking half the time for exposition and the rest in discussion and response. Some may prefer to leave the discussion until they have finished presenting; others (the more normal case) may prefer to have the discussion as they go along.

For the panel panellists should please keep opening remarks brief, to five minutes; then use their right of response to amplify their thoughts as needed.



Sumru Altug, Koç University, Istanbul
Michael Arghyrou, Cardiff
Marzieh Assadi, Glasgow
Parantap Basu, Durham
Arnab Bhattarcharjee, Dundee
Maria Boutchkova, Edinburgh
Shuo Cao, Adam Smith Business School
Jagjit Chadha, Kent
Jonathan Crook, Edinburgh
Tatiana Damjanovic, Exeter
Harris Dellas, Bern
Alfred Duncan, Glasgow
Kazem Falahati, Glasgow Caledonian
Nicholas Fawcett, Bank of England
Firdu Gemech, West of Scotland
Michael Hatcher, Adam Smith Business School
Dale Henderson, Georgetown
Wei Jiang, Glasgow
Preety Karal, Napier
Yue Kang, Heriot-Watt
Tatiana Kirsanova, Glasgow
Alexandros Kontonikas, Glasgow
Rodrigo Lackner, Strathclyde
Ronald MacDonald, Glasgow
Jim Malley, Glasgow
Kent Matthews, Cardiff
Jacques Melitz, Heriot-Watt
Patrick Minford, Cardiff
Charles Nolan, Glasgow
Gulcin Ozkan, York
Graeme Roy, Scottish Government
Aman Saggu, Adam Smith Business School
Peter Smith, York
Oren Sussman, Saïd Business School
Mike Wickens, Cardiff
Stephen Wright, Birkbeck
Bing Xu, Heriot-Watt
Tony Yates, Bank of England
Zivile Zekaite, Adam Smith Business School
Yang Zhao, Adam Smith Business School

Please address queries about the conference to Patrick Minford (, and queries about the webpage to Bruce Webb (